Arsenal are top of the league with one game left to go before the World Cup break, having won 11 out of 13 matches. We are 8 points clear of our North London rivals, 11 points clear of Man U, and a whopping 13 and 15 points clear of Chelsea and Liverpool respectively. It’s our best start to a league season in our history, and to top it all off, we finished first in our Europa League group playing in first gear most of the time. So why is it that some fans are still hesitant to say that Arsenal are in a title race?
It’s difficult to look at the way Arsenal has performed this season and not think that we are one of the best teams in the league. We have gone into every game this season as favorites and have been the better team for all but maybe one of the games, including the one game we lost. So let’s dig into why there is a section of the Arsenal fanbase who don’t want to admit that this team has the potential to really do something special this season.
Underperformance and Lowered Expectations
Arsenal haven’t won the league since the amazing 2003/04 invincibles season and haven’t even come close since 2015/16. For years, even decades, Arsenal were constantly considered title contenders at the start of every season.
In the late 90’s and early 00’s, Arsenal and Man U had a similar battle for the top spot that we’ve seen from Man City and Liverpool in recent years. Had Arsenal been in this position during that time, you’d be hard-pressed to find many who would say Arsenal weren’t title contenders.
However, years of underperforming expectations, years of simply challenging for a Top 4 spot, and years of being outside the Top 4 have left Arsenal fans with much lower expectations of what this club can and should achieve.
That doesn’t mean we can’t raise our standards a bit. At the beginning of the season, fans were just hoping that we could make a solid run at a Champion’s League spot. But, why can’t we now adjust those expectations? Instead of 4th place being the minimum, why not 2nd, or, dare I say, 1st? Perhaps one reason is that having that hope leaves us vulnerable to being let down, similar to…
Last Season’s Disappointment
We found ourselves in a similar scenario to this one last year, though with admittedly much lower stakes. At the start of the 2021/22 season, we had just come off a humiliating 8th place finish and our first time out of European competition since before Arsene Wenger joined the club. After losing the first three games of the season, a lot of fans were just hoping to get back into the Europa League, indicating an upward trajectory.
However, once the team really hit their stride, fans started dreaming. With just two games left to go, a 4th place finish was ours to lose. And lose it we did. We ended up with a Europa League spot, exactly what fans had expected at the beginning of the season, but it felt like a disappointment considering what we could have had.
So, maybe some fans don’t want a repeat of that bitter disappointment. They keep their expectations “grounded” so that they won’t be let down. But, if you never want to be let down like that, then you might as well just expect relegation every year. That way, unless the unthinkable happens, you’ll always be “satisfied”.
Alternatively, some might keep their expectations “realistic” so that they can rub it in people’s faces if we miss out. Now, while I doubt there are many Arsenal fans out there who would gloat about predicting Arsenal to not win the title, there are those outside of the Arsenal sphere who might, such as…
Pundits, Media, and Twitter
Arsenal tend to be something of a punching bag in sports media. The club has a large, loyal, and vocal fanbase, and riling them up tends to do well for clicks and views. For years, Arsenal have been a pretty easy target. Once a giant of the English game, now reduced to scrapping around in the 4-8th place range. Far from their former glory.
But, this season’s success has started to change that narrative. Initially, the prevailing sentiment was that Arsenal weren’t title contenders because it was too early in the season to tell. Then, it was that we hadn’t played any top teams. Then, it was that we hadn’t beaten any top teams away from home. Each time, we have proven them wrong.
Now, we have forced them to take us seriously, and some have. Pundits, media figures, and more have started reluctantly admitting that Arsenal might be considered title contenders. But, we all know that they are secretly hoping that it all comes crashing down so they can rub it in our faces. So why give them the satisfaction of admitting that we also think we’re title contenders?
“Yeah, well, I didn’t think we were going to win the title anyway. You guys were the ones who said we would”.
But, at this rate, even if we don’t grab the title, we should still end up comfortably in 2nd or 3rd place in a season where many people didn’t even have us cracking the Top 4. That is, barring exceptional circumstances. And one such situation comes down to…
(Perceived) Lack of Depth
Mikel Arteta inherited a bloated, overpaid, and underperforming squad when he took over as manager. We had so many players that we couldn’t even register some of them to play in certain competitions. One of the smartest things that Arteta and Edu have done since taking their respective roles has been to trim the squad down to a small, strong, and dedicated core group of players that forms the base upon which we can rebuild.
Having a small squad can be a great thing. It keeps morale high since most of the players will be getting minutes. However, it does mean that one or two key injuries can derail any momentum the team might have. It’s one of the many factors that led to us missing out on 4th last season.
And, while we have definitely added to the squad with the likes of Jesus, Zinchenko, Saliba, and others, there still seems to be a dropoff in quality for certain positions if the nailed-on starter isn’t available. Nowhere is this more evident than in the Europa League. You won’t have found many good performances in those competitions, including from the normal starters.
But, that’s the thing. In that competition, we were making anywhere from five to ten changes to the starting XI. Making that many changes will disrupt the normal synergy of the team. However, if you only change out one or two players, then the drop off isn’t nearly as drastic. Let’s not forget that we’ve already played three Premier League games this season without Thomas Partey, arguably one of our most important players, and were still the better team in all of those games. We’ve also at one point or another been without Zinchenko, Elneny, and Emile Smith-Rowe for significant periods.
That’s not to say we shouldn’t, or won’t, go and try to strengthen the squad in January. But, we can’t expect ourselves to go from barely having a fully-capable starting XI to having a world-class bench in the span of two seasons. It’s not like we have unlimited money from oil-rich nation-state owners like…
The Sky Blue Juggernaut From The North
Let’s face it, the main reason a lot of people don’t give Arsenal a chance at winning the league is due to the ridiculous stranglehold that Manchester City have had over the league for the better part of the last decade. City have won the title four out of the past five seasons and that one season that they came second was due to a monumental effort (and a bit of luck) on the part of Liverpool. And after all that, they still don’t appear to be slowing down anytime soon.
It’s no secret that it will take the same level of effort and luck, if not more, to take down City this season, but we do have a few things that could work in our favor.
First, the World Cup. For the first time ever, it is being played right in the middle of the season for most European Leagues. And, while Arsenal will likely have more players going to this World Cup than they’ve had in recent memory, you have to expect that City will have far more players going, and that most of them will be certain starters for their national team. This could leave some of them injured or exhausted depending on how far they go in the tournament. It’s also not clear what kind of effect this unprecedented break will have on the players’ and teams’ momentum. Anything could happen.
The second thing that could work in our favor is that, now more than ever, City might feel like they can really have a go at winning the Champion’s League. Even with all of their domestic domination, the one thing that has alluded Pep Guardiola’s side has been winning a European trophy. But, this season they’ve added one of the brightest young talents in world football, a goal-scoring monster named Erling Haaland. That along with some of their best players at or just about to leave their prime, this may be City’s best chance to win the one trophy they have yet to win.
This could work in Arsenal’s favor. If City see an opportunity to win the Champion’s League, they may have to pull focus from the Premier League. The same could be said about Arsenal and the Europa League, but if Arsenal are in a close race with City for the Premier League title in April or May, it is quite possible that we will focus our attention on the Premier League rather than the Europa League. It’s possible the same might not be said for City and the Champion’s League.
We are top of the league with only 19th-placed Wolves standing in the way of us getting to enjoy it for a whole six weeks as we break for the World Cup. This is an exciting, young, likable team who are playing a thrilling brand of attacking football. The future looks bright and one thing’s for certain: this season is going to be one of the most unpredictable in recent memory and anything is possible. So let’s enjoy the ride and, perhaps, dream a little.
